What happens to the infection rate?
The surge in Coronavirus infections in India started in mid-March and spread rapidly. More than 400,000 cases per day recorded on April 30 (Friday) peaked. Reached a peak, but in the past few days, they started to rise again according to the weekly schedule.
The volatility of the displayed number decreased on Monday. On Thursday, 6th May, the number of new infections recorded every day hit a new high of more than 414,000. The seven-day moving average (to make up for daily fluctuations) also continued its upward trend. Is the level of testing maintained? Only through routine tests can the spread of the virus be accurately assessed.
There are nearly 2 million tests conducted per day in India, which dropped to 1.5 million at the beginning of this month, but since May 5 (Wednesday), the number of tests per day has returned to nearly 2 million. A decrease in daily infections was recorded in early May. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, a high percentage of positive tests indicates that more people in the community are not infected with the coronavirus.
Last year, the countries recommended by the World Health Organization waited at least two weeks before reducing the positive test rate to below 5 before considering relaxing the restrictions. Gautam Menon, a mathematical model developer and professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University near Delhi, said: “The positive test rate is still high, exceeding 20% nationwide”. Therefore, there is no doubt that there is no reason to believe that India has experienced the second wave of shocks.
The Indian Medical Association (IMA) stated that India has lost 269 doctors due to the second wave of COVID-19 hitting the country, in the past two years. In the middle of the month, data released by the IMA shows that doctors in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have suffered the most. In Bihar, 78 doctors died in Uttar Pradesh 37 died in the second wave of coronavirus. In Delhi, which was severely affected by the second wave, 28 doctors died of Covid-19.
Last year, India lost 748 doctors in the first wave of Covid-19. It is understood that so far, 1,000 doctors have died of Covid. The actual number may be higher because the medical association has only 3.5 billion members. Times Weekly: “All this is almost done. Experts say that in India, 80-85% of the population has no symptoms. It is still the largest carrier of the virus, and asymptomatic people will spread the virus indoors”. In addition, asymptomatic people are not at home. The combination of a large asymptomatic population and the presence of more infectious virus variants during the second wave is very important.
It is steeper than the first wave that peaked in September, and it also spread the virus indoors. For example, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States, a large part of a strain from the United Kingdom was found during genome surveillance in Delhi and Punjab, and its transmission rate increased by 50%. The L452R mutation found in the variant B1.671 first discovered in India is also associated with increased infectivity.
Second, in the current trend, the marking of the safety zone becomes less strict. In cities, the government urges civil affairs departments to take action on micro-content: it may use floors or houses designated as safe areas.
New Delhi has recently approved the Russia-developed Sputnik V and authorized foreign-made vaccines that have been granted emergency approval by the U.S., U.K., European Union, Japan and World Health Organization-listed agencies.